We calculated impacts of increased adoption of geothermal power from 2020 to 2050 by comparing two growth scenarios with a reference scenario in which the market share was fixed at current levels. We estimated current adoption (the amount of functional demand supplied in 2018) at 0.34 percent of generation (90 terawatt-hours). The total addressable market is different for our two adoptions scenarios because Scenario 2 projects extensive electrification of transportation, space heating, etc., dramatically increasing demand and therefore production of electricity worldwide. We based the total addressable market for the Geothermal Power solution on projected global electricity generation from 2020 to 2050. This analysis models geothermal systems for electricity generation, combining both mature technologies and future expectations for enhanced geothermal systems adoption. Geothermal energy could make a much more significant contribution through the development of enhanced or engineered systems, particularly those exploiting “hot rock.” Given the costs and limited full-scale system research to date, enhanced geothermal systems remain in their infancy.

While drilling is expensive, the heat source itself is free. Geothermal is reliable, abundant, and efficient. With subterranean resources flowing 24/7, geothermal production can take place at all hours and under almost any weather conditions. The choice of technology depends on a number of factors, including the nature of the geothermal resource and the economic feasibility of the project. Binary cycle plants, the most recently developed, can tap into lower temperature reservoirs (at much higher costs) than flash plants. There are three main geothermal technologies: dry steam, flash steam, and binary cycle power plants. Prime geothermal conditions are found on less than 10 percent of the planet, but new technologies dramatically expand production potential. Geothermal power taps into underground reservoirs of hot water, which can be piped to the surface to drive turbines that produce electricity. This solution replaces conventional electricity-generating technologies such as coal, oil, and natural gas power plants. Project Drawdown’s geothermal power solution revolves around using geothermal systems to generate electricity.

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